Several years ago, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was asked about his background, how a man who had traded commodities on Wall Street had transitioned into being an impactful voice in an NFL front office.
“My whole life,” he responded, “I’ve been passionate about decision-making under uncertainty.”
His answer offered a snapshot into how he views his job as the Minnesota Vikings’ general manager. Tuesday’s trade was an example of that job in action.
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Hours before the trade deadline, Adofo-Mensah architected a deal with the division-rival Detroit Lions to acquire dynamic tight end T.J. Hockenson in exchange for draft picks. The Vikings parted with a second-round pick in the 2023 draft and a third-round pick in 2024. In return, the Lions sent a 2023 fourth-round pick and a conditional fourth-round pick in 2024.
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Lions trade Hockenson to division-rival Vikings
Why this move now?
Late in Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals, Vikings tight end Irv Smith Jr. collided with running back Dalvin Cook. Smith tweaked his ankle, and tests confirmed a high ankle sprain. ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported that Smith will miss up to 10 weeks, which could mean the remainder of the regular season.
Faced with that situation, the Vikings had an option. They could stick with tight ends Johnny Mundt and Ben Ellefson, who have been reliable if unspectacular. Or, they could mortgage a couple of pieces of their future (the draft picks) for the present (a more accomplished pass-catching tight end).
Even though the Vikings stand 6-1 and have a 3 1/2 game lead in the NFC North, the correct choice, for the present and future, may not have been obvious. Adofo-Mensah opted to make the move, adding to the momentum, to the locker room and to the offense, which brings about an entirely different conversation about the tight end’s role in Kevin O’Connell’s scheme. And about what O’Connell believes that position can provide.
In August, O’Connell was asked about his team’s tight ends. In reviewing the players on his roster, he brought up the name of a player his Los Angeles Rams teams had often matched up against: George Kittle.
“I think a lot of people around the league look at the tight end position as catching touchdowns and the flashy plays people see,” O’Connell said. “George Kittle is a guy, he does all of those things, but what he also does is he blocks in the run game and has a major impact on the play-action pass game.”
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Through the first eight weeks of the season, the Vikings leaned on a combination of Smith (253 snaps), Mundt (223) and Ellefson (44) to fill those roles. Separate their usage into situations, and you start to notice themes. On early downs, Mundt participated in 199 plays, while Smith was on the field for 159. On third down, the Vikings preferred Smith; he saw 73 snaps there, while Mundt got just 18.
These numbers make sense when you consider their skill sets. Smith, a second-round pick in 2019, possesses speed and separation ability as a receiver, which explains his usage on third down. Though Mundt has 12 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown this season, his proficiency resides mostly in his versatility as a blocker and as a potential pass-catching option. To underscore what each player meant to the Vikings offense in the first six weeks, take a look at the types of plays the Vikings ran with each of them on the field in 11 personnel (sets with one running back, one tight end and three receivers). Then compare them to Hockenson.
Player
| Passes in 11 personnel
| Runs in 11 personnel
|
|---|---|---|
151 | 40 | |
67 | 68 | |
172 | 70 |
Early in the season, offensive coordinator Wes Phillips was asked about the usage of the Vikings’ two tight ends.
“Some of it is based on personnel groupings,” he said. “Some of it is what those personnel groupings might elicit.”
His point was specific to Mundt, but it speaks to the versatility of the tight end position. The different abilities of Smith and Mundt spark different responses from defenses. For example, this season, when Smith has played, defenses have counteracted the Vikings with six defensive backs on 32 plays, whereas when Mundt is on the field, defenses have only used six defensive backs twice. Both light and heavy personnel affect offensive play calls. One tight end, in essence, can not only expand the tools at a play caller’s disposal, but it can also dictate the defense’s response.
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This brings us back to the news of the day — and what Hockenson adds.
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We’ll start with the pass-catching ability, which is no secret. The Iowa product was not selected eighth overall in the 2019 draft because he’s a solid blocker. Among the 20 tight ends who have run more than 1,000 routes since he was drafted, Hockenson ranks eighth in yards per route run (1.55). This year alone, he’s fifth among tight ends in receiving yards (395), first in yards per reception (15.2) and second in yards after the catch per reception (8.0). According to Next Gen Stats, only Christian McCaffrey has amassed more yards after the catch over expected this season.
What a game for T.J. Hockenson 👏@Lions pull within four.
📺: #SEAvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/CvE1Ql7jkg pic.twitter.com/4a0b5YimxO
— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2022
Combine that production with the fact that Kirk Cousins ranks 31st out of 35 quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback when targeting tight ends, per TruMedia, and the potential impact on the passing game becomes clearer.
Then there’s what Hockenson can do as a run blocker. The Lions averaged 5.37 yards per rush when Hockenson was on the field and 4.66 yards per rush when he was not. He spoke recently of his offseason work with Kittle, saying: “Our motto is: The best feeling in the world is moving a guy from point A to point B against his will.” He also explained that his knowledge of running backs’ assignments — and how those assignments dictate his blocking technique — has improved.
Evident on tape is Hockenson’s willingness to take on defensive ends. There are a couple of examples from the Lions’ matchup against the Vikings earlier this year at U.S. Bank Stadium. On this play, he was tasked with sealing Vikings edge rusher D.J. Wonnum.
On this play, a toss to the outside, Hockenson matched up with Za’Darius Smith.
The pass-catching talent and run-blocking ability add new dimensions to the Vikings offense. It should allow for O’Connell, Phillips and the rest of the coaching staff to further exploit defenses.
Even then, though, uncertainty remains. In the coming months, Adofo-Mensah will have to ponder Smith’s future. He will have to massage the 2023 cap with Hockenson guaranteed to make $9,392,000. And Adofo-Mensah will have to navigate the future without a second-round pick for 2023.
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These types of decisions, though, are what his background prepared him for. And unlike a Wall Street trade, there may be an added element to the acquisition of an elite tight end: a deeply felt signal to the locker room of belief.
(Top photo: Steven King / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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